NFL Football Prognosticating Formula - JACKPIK

Before I realized it, the NFL season started on Thursday evening. As I prepare to fill out my weekly selections sheet for my FICTIONAL regular pool, I will share my formula for success. For the last three years, I have won between 66%-76% of the games against the spread. This win percentage should place you in the top 10 of ANY pool you may enter !! Last year, I lost track for awhile and found myself floundering in the lower third of the standings. It took all the expertise I had to LOSE almost 80% of the games for the last 7 weeks to claim the last place prize. In my world, ANY prize is OK, so I was not too proud to get my entry money back since the top prizes were out of reach by then. I know NOTHING about football, but I do understand how to gamble. If you are desperate enough to be reading my blog, then at least I can try to enlighten you.

First, anyone from anywhere (ex-football players are the WORST !!) who claims they can correctly pick games consistently against the spread is just plain WRONG !! Do you think Las Vegas, who creates the spreads (which are de-facto CONDONED by the NFL), is there for a reason ?? NOBODY wins consistently. The best you can hope to do is win more than you lose. Studying tendencies, comparing stats looking for an edge, historical comparisons, etc., are a colossal WASTE of time, in my humble opinion.

RULES OF THE GAME

First, in a local pool with your buddies, ALWAYS pick the against the homers. If you are to get an edge, how are you going to gain on the other players when they always pick the home team ?? A selection of the opposing team EVERY week is in order.

Second, ALWAYS choose the home UNDERDOG. It is only natural that an athlete will perforform better with everyone cheering him/her on. You will be AMAZED how often the home dog wins the game outright without the help of the spread !!

Third, choose all home teams with spreads from 3.5 to 9.5. Spreads like these tell you the home team is clearly better, AND they are at HOME.

Fourth, home teams favored by more than 10 points MUST be played AGAINST. Although the home team is usually superior (evidenced by the spread), they sometimes get far ahead and lose interest. The underdog many times will recover to COVER the spread with a last quarter rally. If the home team is not UP for the game, it is demoralizing to give 10 points or more and have NO hope of even winning the game, never mind covering the spread.

Fifth, in games where the home team is favored by 0.5-3.5 points, be very careful. It is my contention that home field is worth 3 points, so the spread is basically telling you the better team is NOT favored, just playing at another team's yard. The home team may win some, but the VISITOR wins about three quaters of these matchups.

Sixth, always take the UNDERDOG points in a RIVALRY game. The dog will play much harder against their nemesis.

Using these 6 simple rules, we will attack this week's schedule (home teams in CAPS).

Rule #1 Type - kansas city (against the hub juggernaut)

Rule #2 Types - BALTIMORE (1.5), MIAMI (3.5), TENNESSEE (3.5), ATLANTA (3.5), CLEVELAND (5.5), SAN FRANCISCO (2.5), OAKLAND (3.5)

Rule #3 Types - NY GIANTS (4.5, Already Won on Thursday), NEW ORLEANS (3.5), PHILADELPHIA (7.5), SAN DIEGO (9.5), GREEN BAY (2.5), INDIANAPOLIS (9.5), PITTSBURGH (6.5)

Rule #4 Types - kansas city (16.5), if not from the HUB

Rule #5 - seattle (1.5)

Rule #6 - none this week

CAVEATS - From week to week, there can be MAJOR deviations. If followed strictly, however, you should win over 65% of the games against the spread. This system works best at around week #8, when everyone (especially Las Vegas, the setter of the line), has a good idea which teams are good or bad. Week #8 until the end of the season has clearly been BEST and most formful.

This system ELIMINATES sentimentality and other hogwash that confuses bettors. Simply follow the rules, and good luck !!!!!!!!!