Right from the proverbial frying pan and into the fire. The RS were very LUCKY to win that clinching game, and the prospects of Dice-K pitching a deciding Game #5 at Anaheim were extremely worrisome. Not to worry, better lucky than good, and both is a tough combination to beat. Let's try to examine the strengths/weaknesses of both the RS and the Rays and try to determine who will win this series.
One must begin with Pitching and then Defense since they are as much as 80-90% of these games sometimes.
The RS triumvirate of Dice-K, Beckett, and Lester is probably baselball's best when they all pitch to their abilities. That effort turned in by Dice-K in Anaheim should give you shivers though. It is far easier to live on the edge in the regular season where every pitch is not so important. The decision to have him begin the series is a good one though. If he loses, it is easier to recover than later in the series. If he wins in Tampa, you have hit the jackpot. The last Beckett start should probably be dismissed as little more than ring rust. His experience and guile should see him through in good stead. You should see much better control of his fastball, even though the velocity is down 4-5 mph, which makes me think he's hurting. Jon (Steve Carlton) Lester is just untouchable right now, and should remain dazzling. Wakefield is a crapshoot. The middle/late relief acts of Oki, Masterson, Lopez, and Delcarmen are all top notch. This writer thinks Delcarmen is better than Masterson and should assume the eighth inning role. The reason, he is a strikeout pitcher. Masterson, especially in Tampa on the turf, will give up some spinning, crazy-looking hits. I vote to keep the ball out of play. Finally, Papelbon was very shaky in the season's last week, but was better than ever when the big lights came on. If he keeps throwing occasional splitters/sliders and his current run should continue, because his heater is ALIVE.
Tampa's starters are all very capable with live arms. Like the Angels, however, they do not really have that number one anchor, and are all really 2's. Kazmir has had that deer-in-the-headlights look lately though. Shields is solid with that changeup but not spectacular. Add in Edwin Jackson for this series, and they are formidable, but not lights out. The RS should get to them a little. They had better, because the middle relief of Howell and Balfour are really tough and will be hard to do much against. Wheeler on the back end (with Percival out) is good, but not super. There will be opportunities to win games late against him. Overall, the Red Sox should have a solid edge on the mound.
The defense of the Angels was very poor at best, and it really hurt them not just on the scoreboard, but also by keeping their pitchers under constant pressure. Unless there is a single major gaffe, that is unlikely to happen here because these two teams can really pick it. Boston's outfield defense is superb, along with the right side of their infield. Varitek is great catching, especially considering all the intangibles he brings to the table. The infield defense of the Rays is superior to that of the RS. Longoria, Iwamura, and Pena are stalwarts. Bartlett at short is a major upgrade of either of the RS choices, especially when his superior range is factored in. Their outfield defense in CF with Upton is exquisite, although on either side the RS are superior. Both outfields are very speedy. Navarro at catcher is good. Overall, I'd have to give a slight edge to the Rays, and that is saying something !!
Power is the next most critical commodity. The RS devasted the Angels with their longballs, but there are really only three guys to be concerned with. Ortiz, Youkilis, and Bay are solid. Ortiz must step up here, with an occasional big fly from some of the others most welcome. Pena of the Rays has really hurt the RS, and a healthier Longoria is a major threat. This category rates a tie on paper, but they play the games on the field. We'll see.
For speed, the RS are very slow, but the guys who can run are very good. Keeping Ellsbury and Coco in check is a must for the DevilDogs. Upton and a healthier Crawford propel the Rays. Slight edge - Boston.
Both managers are generally excellent. That missed opportunity to have Varitek bunt in the 7th the other night was UNACCEPTABLE. This category is dead even though.
There are several intangibles to mention. First, Boston is not made for the Tampa turf, only going 7-17 this year on fake grass. However, the Twins and Rays, the teams that have turf, were hard to beat on any surface this year. Still, a big disadvantage for Boston. The Youth and Enthusiasm of the Rays cannot be overlooked. They feel they are on a mission and have refused to give in, evidenced by winning many games in the very late innings. Boston, on the other hand, has old and grizzled leaders who have been through the baseball wars many times now. They are incorporating the new blood in seemlessly.
Time to stand and be counted. My pick, Boston by a whisker. However, if Dice-K and Beckett revert to form, I think it will be easier. The first two games are key. If the Boston pitchers continue to knock the bats out of the hands of very good hitters like they did in the Angels series, they will prevail. For that club to have no homers from the 2-5 hitters was remarkable. Of course, two of those games were pitched by Lester.
In the JV tilt, I think Philly wins pretty easily. No matter what happens, the AL winner will be the champion.
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